The excitement of the expansion of liquor production capacity or the panic?

Since 2004, the development trend of liquor industry has been on the rise, with continuous growth in production capacity and continuous improvement in product mix. Even in 2009, when the economic crisis swept the world, the liquor industry remained unabated. Statistics show that in 2010, the liquor industry achieved a capacity of 8.9 million kiloliters, an increase of 27% year-on-year, the fastest growth rate in ten years; sales totaled as high as 270 billion yuan, a growth rate of 25%; and the first half of 2011 increased more over the same period. It is more than 30%. According to this speed, by 2015, the total liquor sales will exceed 500 billion yuan.

The various advantages of the industry situation further ignited the "passion" of the development of the majority of companies. No matter whether it is a national brand or a regional brand, whether it is traditional wine or emerging forces, they all competed before launching a capacity expansion plan and taking advantage of the resulting market success. Only one province in Sichuan is expected to reach 9.6 million hectolitres of liquor production by 2020, which is more than the total national liquor production in 2010; Guizhou Province will ensure that the production of liquor by the end of 2015 will reach 800,000 hectolitres, and strive to exceed 1 million. Thousands of litres, but in 2010, the total output of companies above the scale of alcoholic beverages was only 160,000 kiloliters, which is equivalent to a five-year increase in liquor production capacity.

Preliminary statistics show that at present, there are at least 50 design enterprises with annual production capacity of 10 billion yuan in the production of large-scale liquor enterprises, and these production capacities will basically be formed before 2015. If all these production capacities are released, the output value of more than 500 billion yuan will be realized - which is basically in line with the expected total sales of the industry. The ambitions of the backbone enterprises and famous brands in the "Jianghu" liquor market are evident.

This series of figures is indeed exciting, but it also makes people feel a little panic, because their proposals are built on the same premise: the "golden age" of the liquor industry has continued - consumer spending power on high-end liquor continues With growth, rising consumer appetites, and rising drinkers per capita, it is possible to digest almost double the liquor production capacity.